What is the tipping point for Virtual Worlds?

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Permalink Reply by KatsBits on June 4, 2008 at 2:14pm

Two things,

- hardware
- user interfaces

Hardware is a catch 22 because by the time 'it' catches up with the content so that it runs fantastic, that content has upgraded itself to 2.0 (or whatever is 'next'). So it may be that only 'low level' (services that don't have huge overheads) are the ones that well every get mass adoption.

User interfaces, coming from a gaming background the number one problem 'new' users to 3D have is how they interact with computers, using a mouse OR keyboard is fine when writing a Word doc, but using the mouse AND keyboard isn't; too many users have coordination issues. So, 'break' that problem and you get better uptake.

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Permalink Reply by ExitReality on June 10, 2008 at 3:30pm

For this to happen Virtual Worlds, or Virtual Objects (widgets) need to work within the browser.

We, Exitreality, have recently launched in Closed Beta and provide a small browser based plug-in (under 4mb) that converts every web page into a basic virtual environment.

To see how it works... click here to see the Association of Virtual Worlds home page in 3D.

This shows a basic conversion. For something more interesting visit the recently launched Carl's Jr 3D experience (which we co-developed with them.)

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Permalink Reply by KatsBits on June 10, 2008 at 10:14pm

Can't see that without signing up. Would you mind posting some screenshots?

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Permalink Reply by ExitReality on June 17, 2008 at 3:18pm

Hi Ken... a few people have been posting images of their use of the platform at Flickr.

You can see more than 10 images here... http://www.flickr.com/search/?ss=2&ct=6&w=all&q=exitrea...

The Signup page of the Exitreality site now also has some slide show images of the platform in use.

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Permalink Reply by Mr E on June 10, 2008 at 8:25pm

I think once its easy to access (i.e. in the browser) or already a component of the OS...

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Permalink Reply by Shenlei Winkler on June 16, 2008 at 11:15am

I'll go the record and say three years.

Here's why: Once enterprise figures out how to use VW to enable business, learning to use VW will become a mandatory skill set for work. Once people are required to use VW platforms as just another work tool (like the web, Word, etc) then we'll see widespread adoption of VW, just as we saw adoption of the Internet within the mass community.

Of course, to get to the point where Enterprise can use VW as another tool to enable their work, the technical issues - bigger issues of interoperability, stability of the selected platform, security, and so on - all need to be worked out. These are not issues that consumers can or will pay for, whereas enterprise will. I think these issues will be worked out within the next 18 months or so. There's a lot of swirl about B2C plays, but my experience as a mass market designer serving the major mass retailers is that the big dollar play lays in B2B, not B2C. Consumers won't pay to harden a system, or to work out interop standards. Enterprise, however, will.

Once enterprise has addressed these issues, and enterprise workers are ensconced in virtual worlds, doing their work, and they become adjusted to this new platform, then the consumer will start coming in. By then, consumers will have a uniformly more pleasant experience in VW, and consequently the diaspora of wide-spread mass adoption within VW.

I also think that with the changing demographics of the workforce, eg, Baby Boomers retiring and Millennials being hired in, we'll see a worker that is already savvy with the use of virtual worlds and social networking, which in turn will boost the use of VW as the next disruptive technology. I've already seen some interesting devices (a tad expensive, but interesting) that could replace the keyboard/mouse paradigm, and certainly haptic device development is coming up fast. Emotiv has a really cool device out there which has a lot of potential.

User interface - that's going to be a very interesting area of development...but I think there will be more functional UIs within 18 months. Call it intuition on this one. Or insider information, whichever works for you.

As for hardware: Intel and IBM are both making major plays in VW (IBM is my technology partner, so I can speak at least about our project, which is using some of their products to address aspects of the hardware issue). I also think we'll see some interesting chip development out of Intel in the coming few months.

Other technical considerations: the question of interoperability and standards is being addressed already - there's already been a teleport between the Second Life test grid and an IBM OpenSim test island!

And, of course, Microsoft is starting to look seriously at OpenSim as a platform. I met some of their folks at their island in SL this weekend and judging by the conversation, I think some of the database challenges for OpenSim will start to be addressed in the coming year.

So, my prediction: three years. YMMV, IMHO, etc etc etc.

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